BRL 850 million! Why is the Mega da Virada prize breaking records?
The 2025 Mega da Virada was initially announced with an estimated prize of BRL 850 million, a figure that draws attention even from those who have followed lotteries for years. The most common explanation is simple: more bets, more money, a bigger prize. The problem is that this interpretation does not explain what actually happened. The record amount is the result of formal changes to the rules, made on specific dates, which altered the way Mega-Sena funds are accumulated and distributed.
For more than a decade, Mega da Virada operated under a fairly stable model. From the creation of the special draw in 2009 until 2021, the logic was predictable. Throughout the year, a small portion of the revenue from each regular draw was set aside to form the December prize. This percentage was 5%. When Mega da Virada arrived, the money allocated to prizes was divided in a relatively balanced way among the prize tiers.
During this period, the Mega da Virada distribution was as follows:
- 62% for the Sena
- 19% for the Quina
- 19% for the Quadra
This model allowed prizes to grow year after year without major disruptions, maintaining a degree of balance between the top prize and the lower tiers.
On October 18, 2022, Ordinance SEAE/ME No. 8,427 was published, reorganizing and consolidating the rules of federal lotteries. This ordinance brought greater clarity to the operation of Mega-Sena but did not change the essence of Mega da Virada. Between 2022 and 2024, both the annual 5% reserve and the 62/19/19 distribution remained unchanged.
The real turning point comes on July 29, 2025, with the publication of Ordinance SPA/MF No. 1,656, already under the Ministry of Finance. This act largely explains the record prize announced at the end of the year.
The first change introduced by the new ordinance was almost invisible to the average bettor but very powerful from a financial standpoint. The percentage of revenue from regular draws allocated to form the Mega da Virada “savings pool” was doubled. As of 2025, it increased from 5% to 10%. This means that throughout the year, each regular Mega-Sena draw began setting aside twice as much money for the December prize, creating a much larger accumulation even before the year-end draw takes place.
The second change was even more impactful and directly related to the figure disclosed to the public. Ordinance SPA/MF No. 1,656 changed the way the money from the special draw itself is divided. For the 2025 Mega da Virada, the distribution became:
- 90% for the Sena
- 5% for the Quina
- 5% for the Quadra
This level of concentration is unprecedented and does not apply to regular Mega-Sena draws. It was created specifically for Mega da Virada. In practice, this means that almost all of the money allocated to prizes is concentrated in the top prize, inflating the maximum announced amount even if total revenue does not grow at the same pace.
Alongside these changes, the price of a single Mega-Sena bet rose to BRL 6.00 in 2025. This increase helps strengthen revenue, but its effect is limited. Caixa itself knows that successive price increases drive away part of the public. For this reason, prize growth cannot be explained primarily by the cost of the bet.
When the dates and rules are laid out in sequence, the picture becomes clear. Up to 2024, Mega da Virada followed a conservative and predictable model. On July 29, 2025, an ordinance changed the internal mechanics of the system: the amount set aside throughout the year was doubled, and almost all of it was concentrated in the top prize. The result appears in the headline number.
None of this was improvised or illegal. The changes were made through a formal act, officially published, within the rules of the game. What occurred was a strategic choice: instead of relying solely on the natural growth of betting, Caixa redesigned the way money is accumulated and distributed to keep Mega da Virada as a major annual event.
The record prize of 2025, therefore, says less about an explosion in betting and more about regulatory engineering. The figure is impressive and fulfills its role of attracting attention, but behind it lies a set of administrative decisions, clearly situated in time, that explain how records could be broken even as the audience no longer grows as it once did.
